BC Home Sales Forecast to Rise Through 2016

BCREA 2015 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – February 11, 2015. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2015 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in British Columbia are forecast to rise 2.4 per cent to 86,050 units this year and a further 3.9 per cent to 89,400 units in 2016. The ten-year average is 82,100 unit sales. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.  

The average MLS® residential sales price is forecast to rise 4.5 per cent to $594,000 this year, with most of the upward pressure being exhibited on the South Coast. Elevated consumer demand is expected to be partially offset by resale inventories and additions to the housing stock in 2016. As a result, the average MLS® residential sales price is forecast to increase by 2.4 per cent to $608,500 next year.

Source: BCREA

SPOTLIGHT: Recent Trends in Employment Overall, employment conditions in the Vancouver CMA showed improvement in 2014, which was one of the factors supporting housing demand.

The unemployment rate declined to 5.7 per cent in 2014 from 6.6 per cent in 2013, which was its lowest level since the economic downturn in 2009. Although there was an increase in the labour force, employment growth outpaced the increase in the labour force resulting in a lower unemployment rate.

Full-time employment grew by 1.4 per cent and part-time employment grew by 7.7 per cent, adding 14,700 and 19,400 jobs, respectively.

Source: Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada

January 21, 2015. In a bombshell announcement this morning, the Bank of Canada announced that it is lowering its target overnight rate to 0.75 per cent. The surprise loosening of monetary policy is in response to the recent dramatic decline in oil prices and the consequent negative impact on Canadian growth and inflation. The Bank expects the Canadian economy to grow 2.1 per cent in 2015 and 2.4 per cent in 2016. Given the initial drag on growth from lower oil prices, it does not expect the Canadian output gap (the difference between actual GDP and GDP at full capacity) to close until the end of 2016. 

GOVERNMENT RELATIONS

What’s your property worth? 

Property owners received their 2015 assessment notices the first week of January from BC Assessment (BCA).

This notice is BCA’s estimate of a property’s value as of July 1, 2014, and for new construction or substantially renovated homes, the physical condition as of October 31, 2014.

BCA is the provincial Crown corporation responsible for determining and reporting property value estimates for the 1,974,120 properties in its database, an increase of 1% from 2014.

BCA has produced the assessment roll since 1974. Local and provincial taxing authorities will use the roll to raise $6.8 billion in property taxes in 2015.

Where you can view your assessment

BCA’s website includes e-valueBC at http://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca.

e-valueBC provides details about every property, including a photo, a property description (land and buildings), the total assessed value, the previous year value, the legal description and property ID.

e-valueBC lets users compare neighbouring properties and sample sold properties to decide whether their property has been correctly assessed.

Useful features on BCA’s website

BCA’s website offers useful features, including:

• an interactive map of BC showing the percentage change for residential and for business property types by community, 2015 compared to 2014. View the map atwww.bcassessment.ca/Pages/ChangeInAssessmentRollMap.aspx;

• real estate market trend graphs with statistics such as median sales prices by quarter for single family homes and strata properties. Visit: www.bcassessment.ca/Pages/AssessmentRollInformation.aspx and select province-wide property trend graphs;

• property identifiers (PID) and the legal descriptions; and

• videos about BC’s 10 assessment areas at www.bcassessment.ca under Social Media.

BCA’s assessment and a REALTOR’S® assessment — why the difference?

BCA’s assessment and the market value determined by a REALTOR® may be different. Why?

Both BCA assessors and REALTORS® calculate market value by analyzing sales of comparable homes within a local market, and look at factors that affect value such as size of home, view, location such as on a busy or quiet street, number of bedrooms, construction quality, floor level, and garage or parking stalls.

Where every lot and every home on a street are typically the same, both BCA’s value and a REALTOR’S® value will be similar during stable market conditions.

Differences occur in neighbourhoods where lots have been rezoned or are different shapes and sizes, where architecture and views are unique, and where owners have made changes that BCA hasn’t yet taken into account.

Deadline to appeal assessment is
February 2, 2015

Property owners who disagree with their assessment should do homework by:

• comparing their assessment with neighbouring properties; and

• contacting BCA at 1-866-valueBC (1-866-825-8322) and talking to staff who can make adjustments if there is an obvious error, for example if BCA included a complete renovation, when it was merely a spruce-up.

Property owners who decide to appeal their property assessment must complete a Notice of Complaint (Appeal) form available on www.bcassessment.ca. Under the For Public menu option, select Notice of Complaint (Appeal) Process or go directly to www.bcassessment.ca/public/Pages/AppealingyourAssessment.aspx.

The deadline to file the appeal is February 2, 2015.

Each year less than 1% of BC property owners appeal their assessment.

Note: you can’t appeal your taxes, you can only appeal your assessment.

For information about BC Assessment and to access e-valueBC visit: www.bcassessment.ca or phone 1-866-valueBC (1-866–825–8322) 

“BC experienced a significant increase in housing demand last year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Not since the post-recession rebound of 2009 has the market posted such a turn around."

Prior to 2009, one would need to look back to the 2001-2002 period to find a stronger year-over-year percentage gain in BC home sales.

Home buyers were out in force in nearly every region of the province, with unit sales climbing 8 to 25 per cent in all BC real estate boards, except Kamloops where the number of transactions dipped nearly 5 per cent. “Stronger consumer demand not only pulled down the inventory of homes for sale, but also firmed market conditions throughout the province,” added Muir.

In December, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 18.2 per cent to $2.97 billion, compared to the same month last year. Residential unit sales were up 14.7 per cent to 4,426 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 3 per cent at $585,718.

Source: BC Real Estate Association

VANCOUVER, B.C. – January 5, 2015 – It was a typical year for the Metro Vancouver
housing market in certain respects. The region’s home sale and listing totals for 2014 both rank
fifth when compared against the past 10 years of activity, while home prices increased.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that total sales of detached,
attached and apartment properties in 2014 reached 33,116, a 16.1 per cent increase from the
28,524 sales recorded in 2013, and a 32.3 per cent increase over the 25,032 residential sales in
2012.

The number of residential properties listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in
Metro Vancouver increased 2.4 per cent in 2014 to 56,066 compared to the 54,742 properties
listed in 2013. Looking back further, last year’s total represents a four per cent decline compared
to the 58,379 residential properties listed for sale in 2012.

“While home buyer and seller activity created balanced market conditions within the region, we
also experienced some upward pressure on home prices over the course of the year,” Ray Harris,
REBGV president said.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro
Vancouver ends the year at $638,500. This represents a 5.8 per cent increase compared to
December 2013. 

“Detached homes continue to be the most sought after property type in our market,” Harris, said.
“Detached homes in Metro Vancouver have increased 8.1 per cent in value over the last 12
months while townhome and condominium properties have increased 4.5 and 3.5 per cent over
the same period.”

December summary
Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,116 in December 2014, an increase of
8.3 per cent from the 1,953 sales recorded in December 2013 and a 15.9 per cent decline
compared to November 2014 when 2,516 home sales occurred.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,888
in December 2014. This represents a 1.7 per cent increase compared to the 1,856 units listed in
December 2013 and a 37.4 per cent decline compared to November 2014 when 3,016 properties
were listed.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver
is 10,320, a 10.7 per cent decline compared to December 2013 and a 17.8 per cent decrease
compared to November 2014.

Sales of detached properties in December 2014 reached 833, an increase of 9.3 per cent from the
762 detached sales recorded in December 2013. The benchmark price for detached properties
increased 8.1 per cent from December 2013 to $1,002,200.

Sales of apartment properties reached 912 in December 2014, an increase of 7.3 per cent
compared to the 850 sales in December 2013.The benchmark price of an apartment property
increased 3.5 per cent from December 2013 to $380,700.

Attached property sales in December 2014 totalled 371, an increase of 8.8 per cent compared to
the 341 sales in December 2013. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 4.5 per cent
between December 2013 and 2014 to $476,800.

Source: The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

In Canada each year, more than 250,000 immigrants become permanent residents and more than 150,000 foreign workers arrive here, according to lawyer Richard Bell. This number is expected to increase, Bell told more than 200 REALTORS® at a Westside area event on immigration trends on November 12, 2014.

This benefits BC’s economy. “Over the next 10 years, BC will have one million job openings. One-third are expected to be filled by immigrants who will come here and buy homes,” said Bell, a lawyer with Bell Alliance, a firm specializing in real estate, estate planning, business and immigration law.

Government Programs to help immigration

There are more than 60 government programs to bring immigrants to Canada, according to Bell, who highlighted the following major programs.

• January 2014: Parent sponsorship re-opening allowing for 5,000 parents to enter Canada annually.

• February 2014: Automatic Multiple Entry allows applications for visitor visas to be automatically considered for Multiple Entry Visas of up to 10 years or the length of passport.

• May 2014: Federal Skilled Worker Program re-opened allowing up to 25,000 workers in 50 occupations.

• November 2014: The Live-in Caregiver program is reformed so that caregivers are no longer required to live in. This program allows 5,500 caregivers to enter Canada each year.

• January 2, 2015: Express Entry Program: Economic Class applications become a two-stage Online Process where applicants are put into a pool of candidates. Those with valid job offers or in the BC Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) or eligible under the Canadian Experience Class, Federal Skilled Workers or Federal Skilled Trades will be eligible to apply for permanent residence. There is a shorter processing time of approximately six months.

Programs terminated this year include the Investor & Entrepreneur Streams, according to Richard Bell. As well, the age of dependents is now 19 years old instead of the previous 22 years